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FFBL:CY21 EPS clocked in at PKR 4.95; up 1.1x YoY

Published January 26, 2022

  • FFBL announced its CY21 results today wherein the company posted an EPS of PKR 4.95, up 1.1x YoY as against an EPS of PKR 2.35 in CY20. For 4QCY21 company reported an EPS of PKR 0.19, down 92% YoY as against an EPS of PKR 2.40 in 4QCY20. The result was below our expectations mainly due to lower gross margins, higher tax charge and allowance for expected credit losses booked by the company during the 4Q. No dividend was announced by the company for the stated period.
  • Net sales increased 26% YoY during 4Q, mainly driven by ~95% YoY increase in the DAP prices as the offtake remained sluggish (down 25% YoY).
  • Gross margins shrank to 18.1% in 4Q, compared to 21.8% in SPLY, possibly due to higher phosphoric acid prices.
  • The company booked allownace for expected credit loss of PKR 4.25bn with impact of PKR 3.3/share during 4Q. We expect the amount is booked on the loans provided to the FML and FFL.
  • The effective tax rate was also on the higher side at 92.5% in 4Q compared to 35.1% in SPLY, further deteriorating the bottomline.
  • We recommend ‘BUY’ on FFBL with our rolled over Dec-22 price target (PT) of PKR 29/share, offering an upside of 19% along with a dividend yield of 15.5%.

Jan-22 MPS: SBP is indicating that the interest rates have peaked

Published January 25, 2022

  • In line with the forward guidance provided in the last monetary policy, SBP kept the policy rate unchanged at 9.75% in its Jan-22 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS), after consecutive hikes in last four meetings totaling 275bps.
  • SBP now has a more comfortable posture on the existing monetary setting, mainly due to the contractionary stance of the fiscal policy after the recently passed Finance Supplementary Act 2022 which will help in containing the country’s budget deficit and slowdown demand growth.
  • While SBP expects YoY CPI inflation to remain close to the upper end of its forecast range of 9% to 11% in the next few months, it believes that sequential momentum of inflation and inflation expectations have fallen significantly.
  • The SBP has reiterated that current real interest rates are mildly positive on a forward-looking basis and that the current monetary policy stance is sufficient to guide inflation to the target range of 5-7% during FY23; but at a quicker pace than previously expected.
  • This effectively implies that as per current assessment of SBP, the interest rates have peaked, with SBP expecting small adjustments of policy rate on either side, depending upon the subsequent data outturns. This could be a key trigger for the stock market.
  • Despite recent rally in global oil prices, SPB maintained its Current Account Deficit (CAD) target in the range of USD13-14bn during FY22, as CAD appears to have stopped growing since Nov-21, and non-oil Current Account balance is expected to be in a small surplus during FY22.
  • The SBP has lowered its GDP growth rate target to 4.5% from previous estimates of 5% due to upward revision of FY21 growth and expectation of a slowdown in demand owing to a blend of monetary and fiscal tightening.

Fertilizer: Profitability to grow by 35% YoY in CY21

Published January 25, 2022

With the onset of the annual results season, we present the CY21 result preview of Akseer’s fertilizer universe. We expect the sector’s profitability to rise 35% YoY to PKR 71bn in CY21. For 4QCY21, fertilizer universe profitability is expected to clock in at PKR 23bn, up 25% QoQ and 9% YoY.

Urea offtake to clock in at 6.3mn tons in CY21, up 5% YoY

‒During 4QCY21, we expect Urea offtake of ~1.7mn tons, down 4.1% QoQ and 7.7% YoY due to pre buying in 3QCY21 in wake of rising international Urea prices. Cumulatively,  CY21 urea offtake will aggregate ~6.3mn tons, up 5% YoY, due to overall improved farm economics and better crop support prices. This will be the third consecutive year that country’s urea sales will cross 6mn tons mark.

‒DAP offtake during 4QCY21 is expected  to clock in at ~0.68mn tons up 13% QoQ, down 15% YoY. However, for CY21, DAP offtake is expected to reach at ~1.9mn tons down ~13% YoY due to DAP becoming costlier as local DAP prices rose 69% YoY.

Commodity super cycle led Urea & DAP prices to trade at historic high levels

‒Urea prices in domestic market during 4QCY21 touched a high of  PKR 2,023/bag and averaged at PKR 1,885/bag, up 8% QoQ. Local urea is still available at a 80% discount to international urea prices.

‒On the other hand, local DAP prices increased in tandem with international prices and averaged PKR 7,830/bag in 4QCY21, up 29% QoQ. Current local DAP prices are at historical high levels of PKR 9,700-9,800/bag.

Farmers expect wheat yield to rise by ~5-10% in CY22

Published January 24, 2022

  • Considering the recent news flow regarding concerns on 2022 wheat crop due to low availability / application of fertilizer, we conducted several interviews in the agricultural value chain to understand where things stand.
  • To give some background DAP offtake during Oct-Nov CY21 fell 5.6% YoY due to record high prices approaching PKR~10,000/bag. While Urea offtake rose 15%, actual urea availability to farmers is likely to have been much lower due to alleged smuggling, resulting from local urea prices being at an 80% discount to international prices. Resultantly, urea prices in the black market also surged to PKR~3,000/bag against official rates of PKR1,770/bag.

Farmers’ view

  • Farmers in Punjab and Sindh are optimistic about 2022 wheat crop. While they confirm less-than-optimal DAP and urea application to the wheat crop, they believe that the unexpected rains during the ongoing Rabi season and resulting increase in moisture have more than compensated for the low fertilizer application.
  • The current state of wheat crop is healthier than last year. As such, farmers expect 2022 wheat yield to rise by ~5-10% YoY. This would mean that the government will comfortably achieve its wheat production target of 28.9mn tons.

Fertilizer dealers’ view

  • Fertilizer dealers suggest that farmers initially reduced DAP application and planned to replace it with higher urea application. However, with urea shortage in Dec-21, urea application also fell short of the desired quantum.
  • As such fertilizer dealers expect wheat yield to decline by 10-15%. In Sindh, wheat is trading at PKR 2,700/40kg against the government notified price of PKR 2,200/40kg.

MARI: 2QFY22 EPS settled in at PKR 56.0, up 2% YoY

Published January 24, 2022

  • MARI announced its 2QFY22 financial result today, where the company posted an EPS of PKR 56.0, up 2% YoY. The result is below our expectation mainly on account of PKR 2.4bn loss in associate booked during the period. This takes 1HFY22 earnings to PKR 124.21/share, up 1% YoY. Along with the result, MARI announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 62/share.
  • MARI’s net sales increased by 15% YoY to PKR 21.6bn during 2QFY22, mainly due to higher oil price and PKR devaluation. Furthermore, expected 4% YoY growth in hydrocarbon production also supported the topline growth.
  • Exploration cost declined by 50% YoY to PKR 895mn in 2Q mainly due to absence of dry well cost and limited seismic activity. Just to recall, MARI booked dry well cost of PKR 629mn in corresponding period last year.
  • Royalties increased by 16% YoY during 2Q whereas, effective tax rate remained 35% as compared to 29% in SPLY, restricting the earnings growth.
  • We have a “BUY” stance on the stock with our Dec-22 price target (PT) of PKR 2,428/share, which provides an upside of 42% along with a dividend yield of 8.4%.

MARI: 2QFY22 EPS expected at PKR 69.3, up 26% YoY; DPS at PKR 48.0

Published January 24, 2022

  • MARI’s board meeting is scheduled today, to consider 2QFY22 financial results. We expect the company to post an EPS of PKR 69.3, up 26% YoY for 2QFY22, taking 1HFY22 EPS to PKR137.45, up 12% YoY. We also expect the company to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 48/share. MARI paid total dividend of PKR 141/share in FY21 (post removal of dividend cap) translating into a pay-out ratio of 60%. We have assumed a pay-out ratio of 50% in FY22.
  • Expected growth in 2QFY22 EPS can mainly be attributed to the 27% YoY increase in international crude oil prices, and 8% PKR devaluation. Hydrocarbon production is likely to grow 4% YoY during the quarter mainly on account of 6% YoY increase in production from Mari field. Operating expenses are likely to rise 16% YoY while royalty expense will likely rise 25% YoY.
  • On sequential basis, MARI is expected to post earnings growth of 2% QoQ. Gas production is likely to have gone down by 3% QoQ which will be more than compensated by higher oil price and PKR devaluation.
  • Our Dec-22 price target (PT) of PKR 2,428/share for MARI provides an upside of 42% along with a dividend yield of 8.4%. We have a ‘BUY’ stance on MARI, which is trading at FY22 PE and PBV of 6.0x and 1.7x, respectively.

Pakistan Market Strategy: Ideal Entry Opportunity

Published January 18, 2022

  • 5 years of weak KSE-100 performance has magnified the return potential for the next 5 years as earnings have bounced back strongly making valuations highly attractive

‒KSE-100 closed CY21 at 44,596 points and yielded 2% for the year in PKR terms. Dec-21 closing for KSE-100 was 5.0% below Dec-16 closing. In USD terms, KSE-100 has yielded a cumulative negative return of -44% between CY17-21 (-11% annualized)

‒Long term (5 year) forward returns at PSX are negatively correlated with trailing returns. We, thus, believe that weak KSE-100 performance between CY17-21 has substantially enhanced return potential during the next 5 years.

‒KSE-100 earnings virtually stagnated between CY16-19 but have risen sharply during CY20-21. Share prices have yet to reflect this turnaround, making valuations highly attractive. Trailing PE ratio is at 5.0x; 10-year low. Trailing PBV at 1.0x is also at a 10-year low. Our Dec-22 KSE-100 target of 56,200 offers an upside of 26% from Dec-21 closing.

  • PSX has been missing a market mover as FIIs, mutual funds, banks & DFIs have been net sellers

‒Since CY15, foreign investors have sold USD2.6bn worth of Pakistan stocks. Mutual funds have sold USD178mn worth of stocks since CY18 whereas banks/DFIs have also sold USD125mn. While Insurance Co.s have been net buyers (USD 474mn) their participation as buyers is concentrated at market bottoms. In this backdrop, bulk of the liquidity since CY18 has been provided by Individuals (USD 784mn) and Corporates (USD 363mn).

  • Return of FIIs post resumption of the IMF program could be the potential liquidity trigger as Pakistan’s valuations are at a steep discount to frontier market peers

‒Pakistan offers one of the lowest PE despite higher EPS growth, highest dividend yield, and a unique blend of low PBV & one of the highest ROEs.

‒While frontier funds’ aggregate Pakistan allocation stands at 2.2% vs MSCI FM weight of 1.3%, some funds are substantially overweight on Pakistan, while others have zero / negligible allocation. A strong run at PSX post resumption of IMF program may lead frontier funds with no existing Pakistan allocations to become overweight as Pakistan trades at a steep discount to FM peers. This could be a key source of liquidity infusion in CY22.

  • Macro landscape is challenging but likely IMF program resumption in Jan-Feb’22 will lower uncertainty

‒GoP’s target of 4.8% GDP growth during FY22 is higher than Pakistan’s ICOR implied growth potential (4.4%) and the external account has already witnessed weakness. During the last two decades; surge in GDP growth beyond ICOR implied GDP growth potential have led to substantial weaknesses in external account; requiring painful adjustments and sharp decline in growth.

‒Current Account Deficit will likely rise to 3.8% of GDP in FY22 versus 0.6% in FY21. PKR/USD to move in the range of 172-182 during FY22.

‒With FY22 CPI inflation likely to average 10.2%, we expect SBP to further increase policy rate by another 125bps in CY22 to 11.0% by Nov-22.

‒Pakistan is tightening its fiscal stance post Covid spending spree. Tax Laws Supplementary Bill and PSDP cuts as per IMF preconditions will partially achieve this with further belt tightening likely in FY23 budget.

  • Sector and stock picks

‒OVERWEIGHT in Banks, E&Ps, Cements, OMCs; MARKETWEIGHT in Flat Steel, IPPs, Fertilizer; UNDERWEIGHT in Chemicals.

‒Top Picks include UBL, MEBL, BAFL, OGDC, PPL, POL, MARI, PSO, HUBCO, FFC, LUCK, MLCF, FCCL, ISL.

Autos: Prebuying led 59%/117% MoM/YoY jump in Dec-21 sales

Published January 12, 2022

  • Pre-booking of passenger segment vehicles in response to potential price increases by all major OEMs resulted in a significant increase in car sales during Dec-21, up 59% MoM and 117% YoY. Cumulatively, car sales increased 71% in 1HFY22 to 114,765 units.
  • PSMC saw a twofold surge (+124% YoY) in the passenger cars segment in Dec-21. The exponential growth is mainly contributed by 2.8x increase in ‘Alto’ sales.
  • LCVs & Pickups volume continued to lag in Dec-21, declining 15% MoM. However, on YoY basis, sales increased by 6%. Cumulatively, industry sales increased by 64% YoY in 1HFY22, led by INDU with an 84% YoY increase.
  • Trucks & Buses also witnessed volumetric decline of 37% MoM, on account of 36% MoM decline in GHNI’s volumes. However, industry sales increased by 57% YoY in 1HFY22.
  • Tractor sales went down 3% MoM, owing to the end of the Rabi sowing session. However, sales have increased by 35% YoY. On a six-month basis, industry sales increased by 22% YoY
  • We believe that increased duties and taxes on locally assembled vehicles in mini budget FY22, combined with the SBP’s decision to restrict auto financing amid rising interest rates, will have a negative effect on auto sales going forward.

Economy: Dec-21 CPI recorded at 12.28% YoY; -0.01% MoM

Published January 3, 2022

  • In line with the market expectations, Pakistan headline inflation for the month of Dec-21 came in at 12.28%, highest in the last 22 months. The average CPI for 1HFY22 stood at 9.81% versus 8.63% witnessed in the CPLY.
  • Surge in the Housing and Transportation Indexes added to the inflation on the back of 10% MoM upward adjustment of electricity tariffs and higher transportation charges by 5-7% MoM.
  • This led to muted CPI Index decline of 0.01% MoM despite 3.4% MoM decrease in the food basket prices. The MoM food inflation was down on the back of significant reduction in perishable food items prices (-20.92% MoM).
  • NFNE inflation for Rural reported an increase of 8.9% while Urban NFNE inflation increased by 8.3%.
  • Our CPI estimates for full year FY22 are at 10.2% as the inflationary pressures are likely to persist in the 2H which will keep the CPI in double digits, despite some cool off in commodity super cycle.

Economy: Dec-21 CPI expected to clock in at 12.1%

Published January 1, 2022

  • Despite some respite from decline in the food and transport index, upward adjustment in electricity tariff and low base effect likely to take Dec-21 headline inflation to 12.1%. CPI for 1HFY22 is expected to settle at 9.77% versus 8.63% witnessed in the corresponding period last year.
  • MoM CPI Index is likely to decline by 0.2% (after a period of five months) mainly led by decline in the food basket index followed by Transportation Index.
  • For the full year FY22, we expect the inflation reading to clock in at 10.2% on the back of upward electricity adjustments and commodities super cycle. The SBP has also revised upwards its CPI projections to 9-11% vs earlier expectations of 7-9% during FY22.

Mini Budget FY22: Rationalization of taxes to help contain fiscal slippages

Published December 31, 2021

  • The government has finally announced the Mini Budget – FY22, after getting SBP autonomy bill approved by the cabinet, paving the way for the resumption of IMF the program. The 6th review will be presented to the IMF Board on 12th Jan-22.
  • The finance Minister Shaukat tarin introduced amendments in the income tax, sales tax and federal excise laws in which the government withdrew PKR 343bn worth exemptions. Though these measures will lead to higher inflation, however, will support in containing imports and resultantly the burgeoning trade and current account deficit.
  • The mini budget will also raise the tax collection, meeting one of the IMF conditions of expanding the tax horizon. During 5MFY22, the government tax collection stood at PKR 2.3tn, up 37% YoY.
  • The current account deficit has already swelled to USD 7.1bn in 5MFY22 and is expected to reach USD 14bn (4% of GDP) during FY22, which we expect to settle around 3.5% of GDP post implementation of the new tax regime.
  • On the expenditure side, the government has hinted to lower its public sector development expenditure by PKR 200bn and hence the net positive impact on fiscal space will be around PKR 543bn.
  • The new taxes are also levied on the undocumented sectors and at the input stage, in order to bring them under tax net.
  • Amongst the listed sectors we view the budget to be negative for Autos and IT & Telecom, neutral to negative for Food & personal care and pharmaceutical, while positive for E&Ps and refinery.

Fertilizer: Nov-21 Urea offtake up 8% YoY; DAP sales down 40% YoY

Published December 27, 2021

  • Urea offtake sustained positive trend for another month, up 12%/8% MoM/YoY to 574k tons during Nov-21 mainly driven by demand from ongoing Rabi season. On the other hand, DAP offtake declined 36%/40% MoM/YoY attributable to exorbitant increase in DAP prices. Cumulatively for 11MCY21, urea offtake surged 11% YoY to 5.7mn tons while the DAP offtake declined 10% YoY to 1.8mn tons.
  • Within urea segment, FFC remained the market leader with 221k tons urea sales (+18% YoY), followed by EFERT with 201k tons sales (+9% YoY).
  • For DAP, offtake declined across the board as FFBL offtake fell by 49% YoY to 81k tons followed by EFERT’s imported DAP sales down by 35% YoY to 22k tons. FFC’s DAP offtake clocked in at 36k tons down 34% YoY during Nov-21.
  • Overall industry’s CAN offtake surged 10% YoY to 52k tons, however, down 51% MoM due to pre-buying in the preceding month.
  • During the month, local urea prices were up by ~10% MoM to PKR 1,974/bag. Local DAP prices also continued upward trajectory, up ~16% MoM to PKR 8,015/bag.
  • We expect the urea offtake to settle around 6.3-6.4mn tons for CY21 as the Rabi season’s demand materializes, however, DAP offtake is expected to post double digit decline with its prices keep rising to new highs.

Economy: Current account deficit swelled to USD 7.1bn in 5MFY22

Published December 21, 2021

  • Pakistan’s Current account deficit (CAD) further deteriorated by 8% MoM to USD 1.9bn in Nov-21, while in comparable Nov-20 the country posted a surplus of USD 563mn. CAD for 5MFY22 aggregated to USD 7.1bn (5.3% of GDP), compared to a surplus of USD 1.9bn (1.6% of GDP) during 5MFY21.
  • In Nov-21 alone, imports were up 7% MoM (after being stagnant for last two months) while exports grew 14% MoM (post contraction of 10% MoM in prior month), shrinking trade deficit by 2%.
  • However cumulatively trade deficit doubled, +104% YoY in 5MFY22 to USD 17.6bn also causing surge in the current account deficit given the imports grew at a higher pace of 64% YoY versus exports growth of 29% YoY.
  • Upbeat remittance flows of USD 12.9bn (+10% YoY) during 5MFY22 partially compensated for the burgeoning CAD. Worker remittances during Nov-21 declined by 7% MoM and remained flat on YoY due to resumption of travelling.

Nov-21 MPS: 3rd Policy Rate hike; up by 100bps to 9.75%

Published December 15, 2021

  • In line with our and market consensus expectations the SBP hiked the policy rate by another 100bps to 9.75% in its Dec-21 Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) in order to address the rising risks related to unabated surge in the current account deficit and spiraling inflation. This also led to cumulative hikes of 275bps in the Policy rate since the beginning of monetary tightening in Sep-21.
  • The central bank also revised upwards its targets for headline inflation to 9-11% for FY22 vs 7-9% earlier, while the current account deficit is now expected to settle at 4% of GDP in FY22 compared to earlier expectation of 2-3% of GDP.
  • We believe the new set targets are more realistic and in line with the actual FYTD numbers, given the 5MFY22 CPI averaged above 9% and the CAD stood at 4.7% of the GDP in the same time period.
  • The central bank also stated that the goal of positive real interest rates on a forward-looking basis has been achieved after yesterday’s hike and hinted at no change in the policy rate in the near term.

Autos: Ongoing chip shortage leads to 12% MoM fall in Nov-21 car sales

Published December 14, 2021

Autos: Ongoing chip shortage leads to 12% MoM fall in Nov-21 car sales

  • Supply Chain disruption in the automotive sector has affected the sales of new vehicles lately, Oct-21 sales down 8% MoM, however, on YoY sales are still up by 45% due to low base effect. Cumulatively, industry car sales grew 71% YoY to 74,952 units.
  • In Passenger cars segment, HCAR’s sales declined most, down 21% MoM during Oct-21 followed by PSMC with 14% MoM decline driven by low ‘Cultus’ and ‘Wagon R’ sales. Cumulatively, during 4MFY22, sales grew 71% YoY, PSMC leading with 102% YoY growth, followed by INDU and HCAR with 37% YoY and 22% YoY increase respectively. New entrant HYUNDAI sold 1,787 units.
  • LCV & Pickups volumes posted 15% MoM surge in Oct-21 sales (+72% YoY).  4MFY22 industry sales almost doubled to 14,939 units, led by PSMC due to surge in its ‘Ravi’ sales.
  • Trucks & Buses sales volumes were also down 5% MoM to 487 units, with only GHNI sales increasing by 18% MoM. During 4MFY22, industry sales increased 70% YoY.
  • During the month, Tractor industry reported an increase of 22% YoY where MTL saw an increase of 55% YoY. Cumulative 4-month industry sales rose 14% YoY, with AGTL leading the segment with 35% YoY volumetric growth.
  • We expect a further slowdown in sales in coming months as shortage of essential car parts will restrict supply while recent changes in the regulations of auto financing will hamper demand

MARI: Tapping new avenues to sustain growth

Published December 8, 2021

Recommend ‘BUY’ with a PT of PKR 2,199/share

  • We re-initiate our coverage on Mari Petroleum Company (MARI) with a June-22 PT of 2,199/share, providing an upside of 35% along with a dividend yield of 8.9%.
  • Majority owned by Fauji Foundation, MARI is one of the largest gas producers in Pakistan with ‘Mari’ field being its biggest asset, constituting ~92% of the company’s total revenue. In FY21, MARI’s total share in Pakistan’s oil/ gas production stood at ~2.5%/21.3%, respectively.
  • Our liking for MARI emanates from:

‒Higher international oil prices driven by rising demand and PKR devaluation against USD are accretive to earnings, with bottomline likely to grow at a CAGR of 7% over next 5 years.

‒Incremental production of 150 mmcfd of processed gas from GTH project.

‒Least impacted by the circular debt issue amongst peers as most of its gas sale is to the fertilizer sector.

‒Early removal of dividend cap along with strong cash position leads to higher payouts with our payout ratio forecast to be around 50%.

‒Potential diversification into new regions and businesses.

  • The key downside risks to our investment case are 1) Concentration risk due to high dependency on Mari gas field, 2) Low production from Mari HRL reservoir, and 3) Lower than estimated life of main reserves.
  • We recommend ‘BUY’ on MARI at current levels. The stock is trading at FY22 PE and P/BV of 5.6x and 1.6x, respectively.

E&Ps: Government is finally showing some interest in resolving E&Ps circular debt

Published December 6, 2021

E&Ps: Government is finally showing some interest in resolving E&Ps circular debt

  • Recently, the Advisor to Prime Minister on Finance and Revenue stated that listed state owned E&Ps can reduce their circular debt by declaring large dividends, use the dividend payable to the GoP to offset its receivables and stop charging penal interest on their circular debt stock.
  • This proposal is slightly different from the previous proposals, which would have required an injection / fiscal cost of PKR 117bn based on Sep-21 accounts of the E&P companies.
  • The proposal means that the government is not willing to incur any fiscal cost, local E&Ps would not get any liquidity injection and would in fact have to use their cash balances to pay dividends to private sector shareholders. On the flipside, the listed state-owned E&Ps are more interested in further beefing up their cash reserves, which are up by PKR 62bn since FY18.
  • Any large dividends from E&P companies would be contingent upon either E&P companies setting aside their conservative mindset or the GoP agreeing to incur a fiscal cost through a cash injection. We believe the latter will be a better approach.
  • OGDC’s and PPL’s overdue receivables stood at PKR 589bn as of Sep 30, 2021. For OGDC, an additional PKR 131bn are stuck in quasi GoP TFCs and related accrued markup. This takes the total stock of E&Ps circular debt to PKR 720bn, equivalent to 46% of the total asset base of these companies.

Economy: Nov-21 CPI recorded at 11.53%; +2.98% MoM

Published December 1, 2021

  • Notably above the market expectations, Pakistan headline inflation for the month of Nov-21 came in at 11.53%, highest in the last 21 months. This takes the average CPI for 5MFY22 to 9.29% versus 8.76% witnessed in the CPLY.
  • Higher than expected inflation came from unabated rise in the Food basket prices and Transportation Index. Upward adjustment of electricity tariffs also added to the monthly inflation reading.
  • On MoM, CPI Index grew by 2.98%, on the back of hike in the fuel prices as the Transportation Index surged 6.31% MoM, followed by continuous rise in food prices (+3.96%). Surge in Restaurants & Hotels index (+3.53%) and quarterly rebalancing of House Rent Index (+2.41% MoM) also jacked up the CPI. The largest contribution of 137bps came from the food basket.
  • NFNE inflation for Rural reported an increase of 8.2% while Urban NFNE inflation increased by 7.6%.
  • We have already highlighted that food and energy prices will keep the CPI high and will likely lead to another 75-100bps hike in the policy rate in Dec-21 MPS.

Economy: Nov-21 CPI expected to clock in at 10.60%

Published November 30, 2021

  • Persistent increase in food basket’s prices along with a jump in the transportation index will likely take Nov-21 headline inflation into double digit at 10.60%. Upward revision in electricity tariff will also take a toll on inflation readings. CPI for 5MFY22 is likely to average 9.12% versus 8.76% witnessed in the CPLY.
  • MoM CPI Index is likely to surge by 2.1% mainly due to higher contribution of 1.32% by the food basket index followed by 0.35% from Transportation Index.
  • For the full year FY22, we expect the inflation expectation to remain in the high single digit on the back of unabated rise in the international commodity prices, likely hikes in the electricity/ gas tariffs, and PKR devaluation. The CPI is expected to conclude above the SBP’s target range of 7-9%, with our expectation of 9.3% for FY22.

Fertilizer: Urea to close strong year CY21

Published November 25, 2021

Fertilizer: Urea to close strong year CY21

  • Urea offtake sustained positive trend for another month, up 24% YoY to 514k tons during October-21. The DAP offtake also improved 55%/49% MoM/YoY due to onset of Rabi season to 342k tons. Cumulatively for 10MCY21, urea offtake surged 12% YoY to 5.2mn tons while the DAP offtake declined 3% YoY to 1.5mn tons.
  • Company wise, FFC remained the market leader with 203k tons urea sales (+29% YoY), followed by EFERT with 161k tons sales.
  • For DAP, EFERT’s imported DAP sales grew 69% YoY to 67k tons, whereas FFBL offtake fell by 10% YoY to 118k tons. FFC’s DAP offtake clocked in at 49k tons during October-21.
  • Overall industry’s CAN offtake also surged 2.2x YoY to 106k tons with FATIMA’s CAN offtake up twofold.
  • During October-21, local urea prices were up by ~1% MoM to PKR 1,802/bag. Local DAP prices continued upward trajectory, increased by ~7% MoM to PKR 6,917/bag.
  • We expect the urea offtake to witness stable growth as the Rabi season’s demand materializes, however, DAP offtake is expected to close CY21 with marginal decline due to being costlier.

PIOC: FY21 Analyst briefing key takeaways

Published November 24, 2021

  • PIOC held its analyst briefing today to discuss its financial performance of last year. The company witnessed turnaround in its earnings during FY21 and 1QFY22 and reported EPS of PKR 8.69 and PKR 2.12 respectively owing to higher dispatches on the back of commencement of new cement plant along with higher cement prices.
  • The company mentioned that current retention prices are hovering around PKR 450/bag and the company is currently selling 12,000 tons/day cement locally. However, prevailing retention prices are not able to meet the rising cost of inputs primarily due to rising cost of coal and PKR depreciation.
  • During 1QFY22, PIOC held coal inventory at higher end of USD 140/ton because of inability to build adequate stocks owing to liquidity crunch. The company is currently holding coal inventory of around USD 155-160/ton.
  • However, the management also highlighted that it has started to source higher share of local coal (20%) in order to mitigate the impact of rising international coal prices. Price of local coal ranged between PKR 14,000-27,000/ton.
  • Moreover, Afghan coal is also being sourced, which currently costs around PKR 30,000/ton, but the share is minimal owing to supply related discrepancies and uncertainty surrounding Afghanistan.
  • Regarding its power mix, the management highlighted that the share of WHR, CFPP, and Grid is almost the same at 32-33% each and the company plans on increasing the share of CFPP gradually. The company is also planning on adding solar power in the near term.
  • While addressing concerns regarding higher grid costs, the company disclosed that generation costs through its CFPP is currently equivalent to grid cost of around PKR 20/KWH. However, the company plans on reducing the generation cost from CFPP to around 70-75% of grid cost in the near term.
  • In terms of local cement demand outlook, the company foresees single digit growth of 8-10% during the current fiscal year and expects it to improve in subsequent year due to election period and higher development spending.
  • The company also stated that all production lines are currently effective and it would help them achieve cement sales of around 3.5mn tons in FY22 (capacity utilization 67%).
  • Moreover, the management also highlighted that recent hike in policy rate would lower the earnings by around PKR 1.00/share due to higher debt levels. In addition to this, the company plans on retiring around PKR 4.5bn of its long-term debt in current year.
  • We have a ‘BUY’ recommendation on PIOC with a Jun-22 price target (PT) of PKR 150/share providing a potential upside of 85% along with a dividend yield of 4%.

DGKC: FY21 Analyst briefing key takeaways

Published November 23, 2021

  • DGKC held its analyst briefing today to discuss FY21 results. The company reported net earnings of PKR 8.49/share during FY21 compared to net loss of PKR 4.93/share during FY20, accredited to higher prices and surge in volumetric sales.
  • The management disclosed that currently it has halted its expansion plan owing to debt repayment and bleak prospects of growth in demand during the current fiscal year. The company expects to pay off PKR 6bn during FY22.
  • Management expects the demand during FY22 to witness single digit growth of 5-7% on the back of recent cut in PSDP by PKR 200bn, deterrence in continuation of dam projects, and a contractionary macroeconomic outlook.
  • However, in November 2021, the company expects 10% YoY growth in demand. DGKC’s sales are currently hovering around 12,000 tons/day in North and 5,000 tons/day in South. Retention prices are hovering around PKR 9,200-9,400/ton in both regions.
  • The company also discussed that higher freight charges have deterred export feasibility. However, the company has recently booked export order of clinker at USD 38/ton and cements at USD 46/ton against quoted price of USD 50/ton.
  • Regarding the cost of energy, the management highlighted that at an assumed coal price of USD160/ton, the company would incur cost of PKR 17/unit through its CFPP compared to the cost of electricity of PKR 22/unit from national grid.
  • The management highlighted that it has not been able to fully pass on the rising impact of coal. The last purchase of the company was around USD 180/ton, whereas the company was only able to pass on the impact of USD 100/ton.
  • The company is currently holding coal inventory at USD 155-160/ton and has booked two orders for USD 142/ton which is expected to suffice till January 2022.
  • We have a ‘BUY’ recommendation on DGKC with a Jun-22 price target (PT) of PKR 163/share, providing a potential upside of 90%.

PPL: Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

Published November 22, 2021

  • PPL conducted its corporate briefing today following FY21 financial results announcement, wherein the management discussed its annual performance and status of ongoing projects. Main points discussed during the call are presented below.
  • Answering to our question regarding circular debt, PPL’s management apprised that the government is considering different options to resolve this issue. The management did not inform about any concrete development regarding the circular debt. As per the management, PPL’s receivables stood at PKR 161bn (SNGPL), PKR 110bn (SSGC) and PKR 6bn (Genco II) at the end of FY21.
  • On the matter of lower gas offtake of Kandhkot field from GENCO, management is considering different options including diverting the gas to other clients such as fertilizer companies. Another option, which would be costly and needs assurance/guarantee from the government, is to setup a plant to process the gas to pipeline quality and add it to the SNGPL system. The gas from Kandhkot contains CO2 and other impurities which do not meet the criteria of gas utilities.
  • About the Pakistan International Oil Limited, a consortium of local companies to carryout exploration activities in UAE, PPL’s management informed that the newly formed company is expected to drill 7 exploratory and 5 appraisal wells in offshore block 5 in Abu Dhabi during the next 9 years. The first well is expected to be drilled in 1Q 2023.
  • Furthermore, in TAL block, production from Mamikhel is awaiting approval from the government and is expected to commence in 2-3 months.
  • According to the management, there is some litigation issue regarding Zafir project which will be resolved soon. Once its resolved, the company expects to complete the project and commence the gas production in 8-10 months. The management of the company expects 38mmcfd output from the project.

Nov-21 MPS: Policy Rate jacked up to 8.75%, up 150bps

Published November 19, 2021

  • The SBP raised policy rate by an unanticipated 150bps to 8.75% in its Nov-21 monetary policy statement (MPS) to cope up with the rising risks related to inflation, balance of payment and PKR depreciation.
  • The SBP also increased the frequency of monetary policy meetings from six to eight times a year in order to closely follow the changing economic situation and take decision prudently. Next MPS is now scheduled on 14th December, 2021.
  • The central bank cited noticeable surge in the domestic demand coupled with higher international commodity prices leading to a strong pickup in the import bill (mainly energy) and resultantly burgeoning current account deficit as reasons behind the big jump in the policy rate.
  • Rising oil and commodity prices can lead to persistent inflationary pressures throughout FY22. In the preceding months, the committee was optimistic that inflation will conclude in the upper end of the targeted range of 7-9%.

NPL: FY21 Analyst briefing key takeaways

Published November 19, 2021

  • NPL held its analyst briefing today to discuss FY21 results. The company recorded lower EPS of PKR 7.57 in FY21 compared to EPS of PKR 13.76 in FY20 primarily on the back of repayment of long-term financing from the debt service component.
  • The company discussed that capacity utilization has been on a declining trend, from highs of 82% in FY15 to lows of 16% in FY20 and 32% in FY21 due to induction of energy through RLNG and coal, however, in June-21, the utilization level peaked at 68% compared to 28% in June-20.
  • In terms of improving the efficiency, the company mentioned that it has created a maintenance reserve of PKR 3bn which is expected to be utilized over two years starting from July-22.
  • To highlight, after renewed agreement with the government, the company is expected to receive its overdue receivables of PKR 14.3bn in two tranches, where the first tranche equivalent to 40% of the payment i.e., PKR 5.7bn, is expected to come in few weeks.
  • In addition to this, the company also highlighted that renewed agreement for overdue receivables does not include disputed savings relating to capacity revenue of PKR 816mn. For disputed savings, the government has cleared PKR 329mn while the rest of PKR 142mn have been written off by the company.
  • Regarding its dividend policy, the management does not foresee a major bump in payouts owing to major maintenance and overdue receivables. To highlight, the company maintained a pay-out ratio at 20% during FY21 while the overdue receivables at end of FY21 amounted to PKR 18.9bn.
  • Presenting its view on the CBTCM model, the company expects to benefit from the model due to its strategic location and efficiency.
  • We maintain our ‘BUY’ recommendation on the stock. Our Jun-22 PT of PKR 41/share indicates an upside of 129% along with dividend yield of 8.2%.

United Bank Ltd: Robust core earnings to ramp up valuations

Published November 18, 2021

Reiterate ‘BUY’ with PT of PKR 196/share

  • We revisit our investment case on UBL after robust financial results for 9MCY21. We revise upward our earnings estimates for CY22/CY23 by 21%/10% to PKR 28.7/32.2 compared to our earlier estimates of PKR 23.7/29.2, respectively. We have also adjusted upward, dividend payout estimates on the back of stellar growth in profitability which will lead to higher ROE.
  • We maintain ‘BUY’ call with rolled forward June-22 PT of PKR 196, providing a decent upside of 42% from the current levels. Along with this, UBL is offering one of the highest dividend yield amongst banks in our coverage space with CY22F dividend yield of 13.4%. The stock is currently trading at CY22F P/BV 0.8x, at a discount of 20% from its historic (CY16-20) P/BV 1.0x.
  • UBL reported impressive 9MCY21 results with net earnings growing by 41.6% YoY. The growth was mainly supported by lower than expected decline in NII and provisioning reversals. Rebound in the fee and commission income post normalization of business activities and contained operating expenses also drove the profitability during the period.
  • UBL’s asset quality has improved considerably over time for both overseas and domestic lending. Interestingly, the bank has booked NPL reversal on its domestic book during 9MCY21. While coverage ratio also increased to 96% by the end of Sept-21. We have assumed overall gross infection ratio of 10% in our investment horizon.
  • The bank’s CASA ratio has also moved to an all time high of 85% (last 5-year average 78%) with current account ratio at 42%. This could have boded well for the bank in containing the cost of funds amidst rising interest rate scenario, however, the recent 1% hike in the CRR requirement by the SBP will potentially raise the deposit mobilization cost.
  • The bank has increased its exposure to floaters – both PIBs and T-Bills (71% at end of Sept-21) in order to mitigate the risk of losses amid rising interest rates. Going forward, we expect the share to decline as bank will refocus towards lending activities.
  • UBL has gained operational efficiencies over years and has contained admin expenses growth to just 7% YoY during 9MCY21. Cost to income remained stable at 45%. We have assumed the same in our investment horizon.

Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd.- Margins uptrend continues

Published November 17, 2021

  • We revise our earnings estimates upward for Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd (EPCL) post robust 9MCY21 results announcement and consistent uptrend in PVC prices globally. Our revised EPS for CY21E now stands at PKR 16.07, compared to previous estimates of PKR 15.85/share, up by 1.4% YoY.
  • We maintain our BUY stance on Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd (EPCL) with revised June-22 price target (PT) of PKR 80/share; offering a 38% potential upside and 5.2% dividend yield. The stock trades at an attractive CY21E P/E of 3.6x.
  • Our investment case on EPCL is intact based on:
    • Increase in PVC market share to 94%.
    • Capacity expansions to meet local and regional demand.
    • Uptrend in PVC and Ethylene prices, resulting in higher core delta.
  • The downside risk to our investment case is:
    • Sharp decline in PVC prices affecting primary margins.
    • Further delay in ongoing projects (Hydrogen Peroxide, OVR and HTDC).

Universal Network Systems Limited: Benefiting from pandemic-induced consumer shift

Published November 16, 2021

Expensive at FY21 numbers, fairly valued at FY22 management guidance

  • Universal Network Systems Limited (UNSL) is offering 6.85mn shares or 25% of post issue capital to raise PKR 446 mn (USD 2.5mn) through getting listed on GEM (Growth Enterprise Market) board of PSX It is the second listing on the board after Pak Agro Packaging in the small business space. UNSL will be the first fully integrated e-commerce logistics company going for the listing.
  • The offer price is fixed at PKR 65/share, with a premium of PKR 55/share to par value of PKR 10/ share. We believe the company is in high growth phase with exponential revenue generation in international freight and e-commerce during FY21. We expect the trend to continue post IPO funds utilization which justifies the higher offer price. Our fair value of UNSL comes at PKR 45/share based on FY21 numbers, however, using management’s guidance for FY22 the fair value goes up to PKR 72/ share.
  • Investment Thesis: The stock is attractive based on:

> Pandemic led new consumer buying pattern,  with more online orders and UNSL being the only technology enabled logistics company to capture the opportunity.

> Expansion in all business segments (e-commerce, last-mile delivery and software solutions) to increase company’s footprint in Pakistan.

> Ongoing technology revolution in the country under Pakistan vision 2025 and Digital Policy 2018, which plans to increase ICT market size to USD 20bn by 2025, and e-commerce to USD 10bn.

  • Key risks to investment thesis are;

> Sponsors under litigation.

> Increasing fuel prices and company’s inability to pass on cost due to fixed price nature of customer contracts,

> Slowdown in economy may lead to loss of business, and

> Currency devaluation affecting margins of the company due to international payments.

Autos: Chip, parts shortage hit car sales; sales down 8% MoM

Published November 12, 2021

Supply Chain disruption in the automotive sector has affected the sales of new vehicles lately, Oct-21 sales down 8% MoM…….

Economy: What to expect post resumption of the IMF program?

Published November 11, 2021

IMF – EFF resumption around the corner

  • The Sixth review of the IMF’ Extended Funding Facility (EFF) is ongoing, and the recent news flow indicates that the government has agreed with the IMF on some fiscal measures including:
    > Increasing power tariff to help contain the circular debt
    > Ending of some of sales tax exemptions to keep the revenue collection target intact for FY22
    > Giving full autonomy to the SBP
  • It appears that the finer details on structural adjustments are still being ironed out (Primarily new draft of SBP autonomy bill). IMF completed combined 2nd through 5th reviews in Feb-21 with disbursement of only USD 500mn due to govt’s failure to meet the quantitative and some of structural benchmarks.
  • The resumption of the IMF program would likely be paralleled by unwinding of the fiscal and monetary stimulus post COVID-19. Amid rising inflation, policy rate is likely to increase in order to achieve positive interest rates. The government will likely have to reverse part of its expansionary fiscal stance and aim for a more sustainable growth plan alongside increased focus on structural reforms, which have been on the backburner since the onset of COVID-19.

GDP growth rebounded in FY21, but there are question marks on future sustainability

  • FY21 GDP growth of 3.9% was broad based; driven by a combination of low base effect, and Govt stimulus led rise in local consumption. With falling investment during the last two decades, ICOR implied GDP growth potential has fallen by 70bps from 5.1% in 2000s to 4.4% in 2010s.
  • During the last two decades; surge in GDP growth beyond ICOR implied GDP growth potential have led to substantial weaknesses in external account; requiring painful adjustments and sharp decline in growth. GoP’s target of 4.8% GDP growth looks aggressive.

Current Account Deficit will likely rise to 3.5% of GDP or USD 11.2bn in FY22; a sub 100 REER is likely to persist

  • We expect CAD to rise to 3.5% of GDP in FY22 versus 0.6% in FY21, as imports growth is outpacing exports growth.
  • Imports are likely to grow 30% in FY22, exports are expected to increase by 20% and remittance by 9% YoY.
  • For the SBP to continue to build reserve buffer, the current BoP situation needs to be managed urgently. This would require a sub 100 REER. For FY22, we estimate PKR/USD to depreciate by 7%-13% and expect it to move in the range of 168.2-177.0 assuming a REER of 100-95.

CPI likely to surpass SBP’s targeted range (7-9%); Policy rate to rise until mildly positive interest rates are achieved

  • We expect FY22 CPI inflation to average 9.3%, surpassing SBP’s targeted range of 7-9% (GoP forecast of 8.2%). There are substantial upside risks from 1) Global commodity price surge, especially food. 2) Domestic demand revival, 3) Weakness in PKR.
  • We believe the era of accommodative monetary policy is behind us. We expect the central bank to undertake cumulative hikes of 225 bps, taking policy rate to 8.5% by May-22 and 9.5% by Nov-22. IMF may require a more aggressive rate hike.

Fiscal policy is expansionary; needs to be reigned in

  • GoP announced an expansionary FY22 budget with targeted net federal development spending up 36% YoY and subsidies up 59% YoY in FY22. ~44% of budgeted PSDP has already been released in 2MFY22. Continuation of this momentum will likely be inflationary.
  • There are risks to nontax revenue collection target; especially Petroleum Levy (PKR 610bn). 4MFY22 collection is likely to have been 4% of annual target. Nov-21 collection (net of subsidy) would likely be negative.

MCB: 3QCY21 Analyst briefing takeaways

Published November 9, 2021

MCB Bank Limited held conference call today to discuss its 3QCY21 results. Earlier, the bank had reported net earnings of PKR …..

FFBL: 3QCY21 Analyst briefing key takeaways

Published November 2, 2021

FFBL held its analyst briefing today to discuss its 3QCY21 financial results. The company recorded net sales of PKR 38.5bn in 3QCY21 compared to PKR 25.2bn in 3QCY20, depicting 53% growth YoY….

Economy: Oct-21 CPI stood at 9.19%; +1.90% MoM

Published November 1, 2021

Driven by unabated rise in the Food basket and House Rent indexes, the headline inflation for the month of Oct-21 stood at 9.19%. The CPI averaged 8.74% during 4MFY22 versus 8.86% witnessed in the CPLY…

LUCK: 1QFY22 Analyst briefing key takeaways

Published October 29, 2021

LUCK held its analyst briefing today to discuss its 1QFY22 financial results…

Economy: Oct-21 CPI expected to clock in at 8.73%

Published October 29, 2021

We expect Pakistan headline CPI inflation for Oct-21 to clock in at 8.73%, major contributors being higher food prices and transportation costs. CPI for 4MFY22 likely to average 8.62% versus 8.86% witnessed in the CPLY….

HUBC: 1QFY22 EPS come in at PKR 5.72, down 9% YoY

Published October 29, 2021

HUBC announced 1QFY22 financial result today wherein the IPP reported an EPS of PKR 5.72, down 9% YoY…

HUBC: 1QFY22 EPS likely to come in at PKR 6.57, up 5% YoY

Published October 29, 2021

HUBC is scheduled to announce 1QFY22 financial result today wherein the IPP is expected to post an EPS of PKR 6.57, up 5% YoY…

PSO: 1QFY22 net earnings at PKR 25.55/share; up1.3x YoY

Published October 28, 2021

PSO announced its financial year results today, where the company reported an EPS of PKR 25.55, up 1.3x as compared to an EPS of PKR 10.96 during 1QFY21, driven by higher volumetric sales and inventory gains during the quarter…

FCCL: 1QFY22 earnings came in at PKR 0.98/share, up 58% QoQ

Published October 28, 2021

FCCL announced its 1QFY22 result today where the company reported above expectations net earnings of PKR 0.98/share for 1QFY22 compared to PKR 0.50/share in SPLY, up 95%/ 58% YoY/ QoQ…

PIOC – earnings clock in at PKR 2.12/share, down 29% QoQ

Published October 28, 2021

PIOC announced its 1QFY22 results today where the company posted net earnings of PKR 2.12/share compared to a net loss of PKR 0.17/share in 1QFY21…

LUCK: 1QFY22 unconsolidated earnings clock in at PKR 10.15/share

Published October 28, 2021

Lucky Cement held its board meeting yesterday and disclosed its financial results today.  The company reported 1QFY22 unconsolidated earnings of PKR 10.15/share, up 47% YoY…

BAHL: 3QCY21 EPS clocked in at PKR 4.40, down 17% YoY

Published October 27, 2021

Bank AL Habib Limited (BAHL) announced its 3QCY21 financial results today wherein the bank reported net earnings of PKR…..

MCB: Hefty provisioning reversal lifted 3QCY21 EPS to PKR 6.59

Published October 27, 2021

MCB Bank announced its 3QCY21 financial results today wherein the EPS of the bank clocked in at PKR …..

CHCC: 1QFY22 EPS clocks in at PKR 6.14, up 21% QoQ

Published October 27, 2021

CHCC announced its 1QFY22 financial result today where the company posted above expectations net earnings of PKR 6.14/ share versus PKR 1.59/share in 1QFY21….

FFC: 3QCY21 unconsolidated EPS clocked in at PKR 5.07; up 39% YoY

Published October 27, 2021

FFC announced its 3QCY21 financial results today, wherein the company posted healthy profitability surge of 39% YoY to PKR 5.07/share, as against PKR 3.64/share in 3QCY20. Cumulatively, for 9MCY21 EPS stood at PKR 12.49, up 15% YoY….

PSO: 1QFY22 EPS expected at PKR 21.5, up 96% YoY

Published October 27, 2021

PSO’s board meeting is scheduled on October 28, 2021 to consider 1QFY22 financial results. We expect the company to post almost doubled EPS of PKR 21.5, as compared to an EPS of PKR 10.96 during SPLY, driven by higher volumetric sales and inventory gains…

OGDC: 1QFY22 EPS expected at PKR 7.1, up 29% YoY; DPS PKR 2.5

Published October 27, 2021

OGDC is scheduled to announce its 1QFY22 results on October 28, 2021. We expect the company to post an EPS of PKR 7.1, compared to an EPS of PKR 5.45 in SPLY, depicting a growth of 29% YoY. Along with the result, we also expect the company to announce an interim dividend of PKR 2.5/share….

ASL: 1QFY22 EPS expected at PKR 1.22, up 79% YoY, down 27% QoQ

Published October 27, 2021

ASL’s board meeting is scheduled on October 28, 2021 to consider its quarterly financial results. We expect the company to post net earnings of PKR 1.22/share, up 79% YoY as against an EPS of PKR 0.69 in the SPLY….

MLCF: 1QFY22 Analyst briefing key takeaways

Published October 27, 2021

MLCF held its analyst briefing yesterday to discuss its FY21 and 1QFY22 financial results. The company recorded net sales of PKR 35.6bn in FY21 compared to PKR 29.1bn in FY20, witnessing 22% growth YoY.  The growth momentum continued into 1QFY22 with topline growing by 32% YoY to settle at…

Fertilizer: Sept-21 Urea offtake up 24% YoY; DAP sales down 3% YoY

Published October 26, 2021

September-21 was another positive month for the fertilizer sector as the industry urea offtake increased by 24% YoY to 487k tons. DAP offtake, however, declined 3% YoY to 221k tons, though, showed recovery on MoM of +19% due to start of Rabi season…..

ISL: 1QFY22 EPS clocks in at PKR 6.13, up 3.77x YoY; up 15% QoQ

Published October 26, 2021

ISL announced its financial results for 1QFY22 today, wherein the company reported an EPS of PKR 6.13, up 3.77x YoY. The result is above our expectation mainly due to higher-than-expected gross margins…

FFC: 3QCY21 unconsolidated EPS to clock in at PKR 3.81; DPS PKR 3.0

Published October 26, 2021

FFC is scheduled to announce its 3QCY21 financial results on 27th October 2021. We expect the company to report unconsolidated EPS of PKR 3.81, up 5% YoY. Cumulatively, for 9MCY21, EPS is expected to grow by 4% YoY to PKR 11.22….

ICI: 1QFY22 consolidated EPS clocked in at PKR 39, up 2.7x YoY

Published October 26, 2021

ICI announced its 1QFY22 results today, reporting a consolidated EPS of PKR 39.00, up 2.7x YoY…

FFBL: 3QCY21 EPS clocked in at PKR 1.76; down 31% YoY

Published October 25, 2021

FFBL announced its 3QCY21 results today wherein the company posted an EPS of PKR 1.76, down 31% YoY as against an EPS of PKR 2.56 in 3QCY20. Cumulatively, for 9MCY21 EPS stood at PKR 4.76 as compared to a LPS of PKR 0.7 posted in 9MCY20…

PPL: 1QFY22 EPS clocks in at PKR 6.2, up 18% YoY, up 19% QoQ

Published October 25, 2021

PPL announced its 1QFY22 financial result today where the company reported net earnings of PKR 6.2/share, up 18% YoY, compared to an EPS of PKR 5.3 in SPLY. The result is in line with our expectations…

DGKC: 1QFY22 earnings clocked in at PKR 2.07, up 4% QoQ

Published October 25, 2021

DGKC announced its 1QFY22 results today where the company reported above expectations net earnings of PKR 2.07/share compared to a net loss of 0.80/share in 1QFY21…

ISL: EPS expected at PKR 3.4, up 1.6x YoY; down 36% QoQ

Published October 25, 2021

ISL’s board meeting is scheduled on October 26, 2021 to consider 1QFY22 financial results. We expect the company to post net earnings of PKR 3.4/share, up 1.6x YoY as against an EPS of PKR 1.29 in the SPLY…

BAFL: 3QCY21 unconsolidated EPS comes at PKR 2.0 up; 29% YoY

Published October 25, 2021

BAFL announced its 3QCY21 financial results today, where the bank reported unconsolidated profit after tax of …..

NPL: 1QFY22 EPS clocked in at PKR 2.58, down 2% YoY

Published October 22, 2021

NPL announced its 1QFY22 financial results, where the IPP posted an EPS of PKR 2.58 (down 2% YoY)…

MLCF: consolidated EPS stood at PKR 0.76, up 51% YoY

Published October 22, 2021

MLCF announced its 1QFY22 financial results today where the company posted consolidated net earnings of PKR 0.76/ share versus PKR 0.51/ share in 1QFY21, up 51% YoY…

ACPL: 1QFY22 Consolidated EPS settles at PKR 2.42, down 28% YoY

Published October 22, 2021

ACPL announced its financial result today, wherein the company posted consolidated EPS of PKR 2.42/share during 1QFY22, down 28% YoY, lower than our expectations primarily on the back of higher energy costs, and lower contribution from Iraq’s operations…

ICI: 1QFY22 Consolidated EPS expected at PKR 13.28

Published October 22, 2021

ICI Pakistan is scheduled to hold its board meeting on 25th October 2021 to consider 1QFY22 results, wherein the consolidated profit after tax is expected to increase 25% YoY to PKR 1.2bn (PKR 13.82/share)…

POL: 1QFY22 EPS clocks in at PKR 18.52, up 45%/38% YoY/QoQ

Published October 22, 2021

POL announced its 1QFY22 financial result today, wherein the company reported an EPS of PKR 18.52, up 45% YoY. The result is above our earnings expectation of PKR 16.1/share mainly due to higher other income booked during the quarter…

APL: 1QFY22 earnings clocked in at PKR 24.0/share, up 61% YoY

Published October 21, 2021

APL announced its 1QFY22 results today wherein the company reported net earnings of PKR 24.0/share, up 61% YoY….

KOHC – 1QFY22 EPS clocks in at PKR 6.96, up 45% QoQ

Published October 21, 2021

KOHC announced its 1QFY22 results today where the company reported above expectations net earnings of PKR 6.96/share for 1QFY22 compared to earnings of PKR 2.52/share in SPLY, up 1.8x YoY…

PPL: 1QFY22 EPS to clock in at PKR 6.1, up 15% YoY

Published October 21, 2021

PPL is scheduled to announce its 1QFY22 results on October 25, 2021. We expect the company to post an EPS of PKR 6.1, compared to an EPS of PKR 5.3 in SPLY, depicting a growth of 15% YoY…

NPL: 1QFY22 EPS estimated to clock in at PKR 1.80, down 31% YoY

Published October 21, 2021

NPL is scheduled to announce its 1QFY22 financial results on 22nd October 2021, where we expect the IPP to post an EPS of PKR 1.80…

FFBL: 3QCY21 unconsolidated earnings to clock in at PKR 4.84/share

Published October 21, 2021

FFBL is scheduled to announce its 3QCY21 financial results on 25th October 2021. We expect the company to report unconsolidated EPS of PKR 4.84, up 89% YoY (including one-time gain of PKR 2.33/share from the sale of wind power projects). For 9MCY21, the net earnings are expected to be around PKR 7.84/ share, as compared to a loss of PKR 0.97/ share in SPLY. We do not expect any dividend along with the results….

Cements: Spiraling coal prices to decline net earnings 10% QoQ in 1QFY22

Published October 21, 2021

We present 1QFY22 result preview of Akseer cement universe. We expect overall profitability of the companies under our coverage to decline by 10% QoQ during the quarter primarily on the back of sluggish cement dispatches, higher coal costs and deterrence in fully passing on the cost despite…

Economy: Current account deficit swells to USD 3.4bn in 1QFY22

Published October 20, 2021

Some improvement was witnessed in the Current Account Deficit (CAD) on MoM during Sept-21, down 24% to USD 1.1bn, however, in the comparable Sept-20 the country posted a surplus of …..

APL: 1QFY22 EPS expected at PKR 19.0, up 27% YoY

Published October 20, 2021

APL’s board meeting is scheduled tomorrow, to announce 1QFY22 financial results. We expect the company to post NPAT of PKR 1.9bn (an EPS of PKR 19.0, up 27% YoY). This bottomline growth is mainly on account of inventory gains and higher volumetric sales…

POL: Earnings to clock in at PKR 16.1 in 1QFY22, up 26% YoY

Published October 20, 2021

POL’s board meeting is scheduled on October 21, 2021, to announce 1QFY22 financial results, where we expect the company to post an EPS of PKR 16.1, up 26% YoY. The increase in earnings can mainly be attributed to the higher international crude oil prices (averaging …

UBL – Higher NII lifted 3QCY21 unconsolidated EPS to PKR 6.34, up 66% YoY

Published October 20, 2021

United bank Limited (UBL) announced its 3QCY21 results today, where the bank posted upbeat earnings growth of 66% YoY to …..

EPCL: 3QCY21 Analyst Briefing Key Takeaways

Published October 18, 2021

Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd held analyst briefing today to discuss its 3QCY21 financial performance and industry’s outlook….

HBL: 3QCY21 Conference call Key Takeaways

Published October 18, 2021

Habib Bank Limited held a conference call today to discuss its 3QCY21 financial performance and banking industry’s outlook. Last week, the bank had reported consolidated net earnings of …..

EPCL: 3QCY21 EPS recorded at PKR 3.42; DPS PKR 3.00

Published October 18, 2021

Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd (EPCL) announced its 3QCY21 financial results, wherein the company reported consolidated EPS of PKR 3.42/share…

HBL: 3QCY21 EPS came in at PKR 6.17; DPS PKR 1.75

Published October 15, 2021

HBL announced its 3QCY21 result wherein the bank reported consolidated net earnings of PKR 6.17/share…..

MEBL: 3QCY21 EPS recorded at PKR 4.28; DPS PKR 1.50

Published October 14, 2021

Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL) announced its 3QCY21 financial results, wherein the company reported net earnings of …..

PPL: Weighed down by circular debt

Published October 14, 2021

We revise our earnings estimates upward for Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) after incorporating FY21 financial accounts, PKR devaluation and recent uptrend in international oil prices. Our new EPS forecast for FY22/23 now comes at PKR 24.4/25.6, compared to previous estimates of PKR 22.0/23.3 (up 11%/9.8%)….

ACPL: FY21 Analyst briefing key takeaways

Published October 14, 2021

ACPL held analyst briefing today to discuss its FY21 financial results. The company reported consolidated earnings of PKR 13.61/share during FY21 compared to PKR 14.43 during FY20. Moreover, the company also announced a dividend of PKR 4/share in FY21…

Banks: Profitability to decline by 4% YoY/ 3% QoQ in 3QCY21

Published October 14, 2021

With the onset of result season, we present 3QCY21 result previews of our banking universe. We expect profitability of the sector to decline by 4% YoY/ 3% QoQ during the 3QCY21 primarily owing to….

EFERT: 3QCY21 Result Review & Analyst Briefing Takeaways

Published October 14, 2021

EFERT posted 3QCY21 net profit of PKR 4.4bn (EPS PKR 3.30) compared to net profit of PKR 7.0bn ……

Autos: Another buoyant quarter for the sector; sales up 84% YoY

Published October 13, 2021

Supported by the FY22 budgetary incentives, auto sector witnessed one of the highest sales, overall industry sales growing by 84% YoY during 1QFY22 to 68,889 units, (Sept-21 sales grew 2% MoM/ 59% YoY to 22,235 units)…

EPCL – 3QCY21 EPS expected at PKR 3.50; Payout at PKR 1.00

Published October 13, 2021

EPCL is scheduled to hold its board meeting on 15th Oct, 2021 to consider the financial results for 3QCY21…

MEBL – 3QCY21 EPS to clock in at PKR 3.99; DPS PKR 1.50

Published October 12, 2021

Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL) is scheduled to announce its 3QCY21 financial results on 14th October 2021. We expect net earnings to remain almost flat on QoQ/ YoY basis to…..

EFERT- 3QCY21 earnings to clock in at PKR 3.42/share; DPS PKR 3.0/-

Published October 11, 2021

EFERT is scheduled to announce its 3QCY21 financial results on 13th October 2021, where the company is expected to report an EPS of PKR 3.42…..

HBL: Improving asset quality to support growth

Published October 7, 2021

We reiterate our ‘BUY’ call on HBL with June-22 price target (PT) of PKR 158, providing an upside of 45% from current levels along with dividend yield of 9%. We have also revised upward our earnings estimates by 4%/10% for CY21/22 to EPS PKR…

PSO: Market leader trading at a discount

Published October 7, 2021

We revise our earnings estimates upward for Pakistan State Oil (PSO) after incorporating latest FY21 financials. Our new EPS for FY22/23 now comes at PKR 39/40, compared to previous estimates of PKR 38/36 (up 2.6%/11.1%)…

KOHC: FY21 Analyst briefing key takeaways

Published October 7, 2021

KOHC held analyst briefing yesterday to discuss its FY21 financial results. The company recorded net earnings of PKR 17.41/share during FY21 compared to net loss of PKR 2.21/share in SPLY…

ISL: Corporate Briefing Key Takeaways

Published October 5, 2021

International Steels Limited (ISL) conducted its corporate briefing session today where the company discussed its Annual financial performance. Key takeaways are below…

Economy: Sept-21 CPI came in above estimates at 8.98%; +2.12% MoM

Published October 4, 2021

Headline inflation for the month of Sept-21 came in at 8.98% primarily on the back of surge in the food and fuel prices. The CPI for 1QFY22 averaged 8.58% versus…

FCCL – FY21 Analyst briefing key takeaways

Published October 4, 2021

FCCL held its analyst briefing last week to discuss its FY21 financial results. The company recorded net earnings of PKR 2.52/share during FY21 compared to net loss of PKR 0.04/share in SPLY…

Economy: Sept-21 CPI expected to clock in at 8.25%

Published September 29, 2021

We expect Pakistan headline CPI inflation for Sept-21 to clock in at 8.25%, major contributors being higher food prices and ….

PIOC: FY21 EPS clocks in at PKR 8.69/share

Published September 28, 2021

PIOC announced its FY21 results today where the company posted net earnings of PKR 8.69/share compared to a net loss of PKR 0.92/share in FY20…

ASL – FY21 EPS expected at PKR 8.92, 4QFY21 EPS at PKR 2.81

Published September 28, 2021

ASL’s board meeting is scheduled on September 30, 2021 to consider FY21 financial results. We expect the company to post earnings of ..

MLCF: Well placed to capitalize on upbeat demand

Published September 27, 2021

We revise our earnings estimates upwards for Maple Leaf Cement Factory Limited (MLCF) after incorporating latest annual financials, change in coal prices and cement bag prices, PKR depreciation and +ve demand outlook. Our new EPS forecast for FY22/23 now comes at PKR 3.92/7.77, (up 5%/23%) compared to previous estimates of PKR 3.72/6.32 respectively…

Fertilizer: Aug-21 Urea offtake up 13% YoY; DAP sales down 37% YoY

Published September 27, 2021

During August-21, industry urea offtake increased by 13% YoY to 649k tons, while DAP offtake declined 37% YoY to 187k tons…

PIOC – FY21 earnings to clock in at PKR 8.87/share, Payout PKR 2.0/ share

Published September 24, 2021

PIOC is scheduled to announce its annual result for the financial year FY21 on 28th September 2021, where we expect the company to report net profit of PKR 2.0bn (EPS PKR 8.87) for FY21 compared to a net loss of PKR 0.2bn…

BAFL: Upbeat earnings and low multiples warrant rerating

Published September 23, 2021

We have revised upward our earnings forecast for Bank Alfalah (BAFL) by 18%/ 11% for CY21/22 post 1HCY21 results to…

The Price of “Absolutely Not”

Published September 22, 2021

KSE-100 index lost 519 points on 21st September, 2021, the first session after Sep-21 MPS in which SBP decided to raise interest rates
by 25 bps. The index is down another 600 points and trading at 45,400 today at the time of writing this…

Sept-21 MPS: Policy Rate up by 25 bps to 7.25%

Published September 20, 2021

The SBP, initiating the tapering of the stimulus provided to the COVID-19 affected economy, reversed the interest rate cycle and increased the Policy Rate by…

OGDC – FY21 EPS expected at PKR 21.3, -8% YoY; DPS PKR 2.5

Published September 20, 2021

OGDC is scheduled to announce FY21 results on September 27, 2021. The company is expected to post earnings of PKR 21.3 per share compared to EPS of PKR 23.27 during FY20, down…

ISL: Stable demand to drive earnings

Published September 17, 2021

We revise our earnings estimates and price target (PT) upwards for International Steels Limited (ISL) after incorporating latest annual accounts. Our new EPS estimates for FY22/23 now come at PKR 10.1/12.6, compared to previous estimates of PKR 9.6/10.7 respectively…

PPL: FY21 EPS clocked in at PKR 19.21, up 5.8% YoY, DPS PKR 2.0

Published September 17, 2021

PPL announced its FY21 financial result today where the company reported net earnings of PKR 19.21/share, up 5.8% YoY. This growth can mainly be attributed to lower effective tax rate which came around 23.6% during FY21 as against 29% during FY20…

NPL: FY21 EPS clocked in at PKR 7.57, down 46% YoY, DPS PKR 1.50

Published September 16, 2021

NPL announced its FY21 financial results, where the IPP posted an EPS of PKR 1.57 (down 52% YoY) for 4QFY21, taking FY21 EPS to PKR 7.57, down 46% YoY. Along with the result the company also announced a cash dividend of PKR 1.50/share…

MCB Bank Ltd: Refocus on lending may compromise asset quality

Published September 15, 2021

We reiterate our ‘BUY’ stance on MCB Bank Limited (MCB) after incorporating latest quarterly results. We have also rolled forward our PT to June-22 with revised PT of….

PPL: FY21 EPS expected at PKR 18.92, up 4% YoY; DPS PKR 1.5

Published September 15, 2021

PPL is scheduled to announce its FY21 results on September 17, 2021. We expect the company to post an EPS of PKR 18.92 for the year, compared to an EPS of PKR 18.16 in SPLY, depicting a growth rate of 4% YoY…

APL: Expanding Footprint

Published September 14, 2021

We revise our earnings estimates upward for Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) after incorporating latest FY21 financials. Our new EPS for FY22/23 now comes at PKR 54.0/57.0, compared to previous estimates of PKR 48.4/54.6 (up 11.6%/4.4%)…

DGKC – FY21 earnings clocked in at PKR 8.49, DPS PKR 1.00

Published September 14, 2021

DGKC announced its FY21 results today where the company reported net earnings of PKR 8.49/share for FY21 compared to net loss of 4.93/share in…

NPL: FY21 EPS estimated to clock in at PKR 7.70, down 45% YoY

Published September 14, 2021

NPL is scheduled to announce its FY21 financial results on 16th September 2021, where we expect the IPP to post an EPS of PKR 1.70 (down 48% YoY) for 4QFY21, taking FY21 EPS to PKR 7.70, down 45% YoY…

CHCC – FY21 Analyst briefing key takeaways

Published September 14, 2021

Cherat Cement Company (CHCC) held analyst briefing yesterday to discuss its FY21 financial results. The company recorded net sales of PKR 25.2bn in FY21 compared to PKR 17.9bn in FY20, witnessing…

HTL: FY21 earnings clocked in at PKR 5.62/share, up 4.3x YoY, 4Q EPS 1.24

Published September 13, 2021

HTL announced its FY21 financial results today where the company reported consolidated net earnings of PKR 5.62/share, up 4.3x YoY as compared to PKR 1.05/share in same period last year…

DGKC – FY21 earnings expected at PKR 8.85/share, DPS at PKR 2.75

Published September 10, 2021

DGKC is scheduled to announce its FY21 financial result on 14th September 2021, where we expect the company to report an EPS of PKR 2.35 in 4QFY21 compared to an LPS of PKR 0.70 in 4QFY20. This will take full year earnings to…

PSO: FY21 Analyst briefing key takeaways

Published September 10, 2021

PSO held its analyst briefing yesterday to discuss FY21 financial results. The company booked net profit of PKR 29.14bn, compared to a net loss of PKR 6.5bn during FY20. The turnaround came from higher volumetric sales and hefty inventory gains during FY21…

HTL: FY21 earnings to clock in at PKR 6.0/share, up 4.76x YoY, 4Q EPS PKR 1.66

Published September 8, 2021

HTL’s board meeting is scheduled on September 10, 2021 to consider FY21 financial results. We expect the company to post an EPS of PKR 6.0, as compared to an EPS of PKR 1.0 in FY20, depicting 4.76x growth in the bottomline…

Octopus Digital Limited: Conforming to next digital era

Published September 8, 2021

Octopus Digital Limited (OCTOPUS), a wholly owned subsidiary of Avanceon Limited, provides B2B After Market Support (AMS) services to Industrial Automation clients both locally and internationally. The company plans to issue 27.35 mn ordinary shares at a floor price of…

POL: Safer bet amongst E&Ps

Published September 8, 2021

  • We revise our earnings estimates upward for Pakistan Oilfields (POL) after incorporating latest annual financials, PKR devaluation and improvement in international oil prices…

FCCL – FY21 earnings clocked in at PKR 2.52/share; no payout

Published September 6, 2021

FCCL announced its FY21 result today where the company reported net earnings of PKR 2.52/share for FY21 compared to a net loss of PKR 0.04/share in…

FCCL – FY21 earnings to clock in at PKR 2.71/share; PKR 1.0 DPS likely

Published September 3, 2021

FCCL is scheduled to announce its FY21 results on 6th September 2021 wherein we expect the company to post profit after tax of PKR 3.7bn (EPS PKR 2.71), compared to loss of PKR 59mn…

HUBC: Returning to its former glory?

Published September 2, 2021

HUBC reported net earnings of PKR 25.97/ share in FY21, up 35% YoY. Along with the result the company also announced final cash dividend of PKR 5.0/share (higher than market consensus) taking full-year pay-out to PKR 12.0/share…

Economy: August-21 CPI surged 8.35% YoY, 0.58% MoM

Published September 1, 2021

Headline inflation for August-21 grew 8.35% YoY with main contribution coming from the high food and fuel prices. CPI for 2MFY22 surged 8.4% YoY versus…

BAFL – Conference Call Key Takeaways

Published August 31, 2021

Bank Alfalah Limited (BAFL) held its conference call today to discuss its 2QCY21 financial performance and banking industry’s outlook. To recall, the bank had reported net earnings of PKR 1.95/share in 2QCY21 (up 25% YoY) taking cumulative earnings for 1HCY21 to…

KOHC – FY21 clocks in at PKR 17.41/share; no payout

Published August 31, 2021

KOHC announced its full year results today where the company reported earnings of PKR 17.41/share for FY21 compared to net loss of PKR 2.21/share in…

Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd.- Knows its game!

Published August 30, 2021

We initiate our coverage on Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd (EPCL) with a BUY recommendation and June-22 price target (PT) of PKR 79/share…

 

HUBC: FY21 EPS clocked in at PKR 25.97, up 35% YoY

Published August 30, 2021

  • HUBC announced its FY21 financial results today, where the company’s EPS came in at PKR 25.97, up 35% YoY. The company’s 4QFY21 earnings clocked in at PKR 6.76 (up 29% YoY). Along with the results the company also declared final cash dividend of PKR 5.00/share, taking full year pay out to PKR 12.00 share.

CHCC – FY21 EPS clocks in at PKR 16.50, DPS PKR 2.25

Published August 26, 2021

CHCC announced its FY21 financial result today where the company posted net earnings of PKR 16.50/ share versus the LPS of…

Fertilizer: Urea offtake jumped 8% YoY in July-21

Published August 26, 2021

During July-21, industry urea offtake increased by 8% YoY to 622k tons, while DAP offtake declined 22% YoY to 193k tons…

BAFL- 2QCY21 EPS comes at PKR 1.95 up 25% YoY, due to NII expansion

Published August 25, 2021

BAFL announced its 2QCY21 financial results, where the bank reported net earnings of PKR 1.95/share, up 25% YoY. Cumulative earnings for 1HCY21 grew by 24% YoY to…

HUBC: FY21 EPS likely to settle at PKR 24.9, up 29% YoY

Published August 25, 2021

HUBC is scheduled to announce FY21 financial results on 30th August 2021. The IPP is expected to post an EPS of PKR 5.69, up 9% YoY for the 4QFY21, taking FY21 EPS to PKR 24.90…

ISL: FY21 EPS clocks in at PKR 17.16 up 14.1x YoY, 4QFY21 EPS at PKR 5.32

Published August 25, 2021

ISL’s announced its financial results for FY21 today, wherein the company reported an EPS of PKR 17.16/share, up 14.1x YoY. The result was slightly below our expectation of PKR 17.76/share, mainly due to higher-than-expected operating expenses…

MCB – 2QCY21 Analyst briefing takeaways

Published August 24, 2021

MCB Bank Limited held a conference call to discuss its 2QCY21 results. Earlier, the bank had reported net earnings of PKR 6.71…

PSO: FY21 earnings clock in at PKR 62.07/share, 4QFY21 EPS PKR 23.21

Published August 24, 2021

PSO announced its FY21 financial results today, where the company reported an EPS of PKR 62.07, as compared to an LPS of PKR 13.77 during FY20, driven by higher volumetric sales and inventory gains during the year…

CHCC – FY21 earnings to clock in at PKR 16.65/share

Published August 24, 2021

CHCC is scheduled to announce its FY21 financial result on 26th August 2021, where we expect the company to report an EPS of PKR 4.54 for 4QFY21 compared to a LPS of…

BAFL: 2QCY21 EPS expected to rise 10% YoY to PKR 1.72, due to low provisioning

Published August 23, 2021

BAFL is scheduled to announce its 2QCY21 financial results on 25th August 2021, where we expect the bank to report net earnings of PKR 1.72/share, up 10% YoY. This will take cumulative earnings for 1HCY21 to PKR 3.67/share, up 17% YoY. Along with the result, we expect the bank to announce an interim dividend of PKR 2.0/ share…

ISL: FY21 EPS expected at PKR 17.74 up 14.6x YoY, 4QFY21 EPS at PKR 5.90

Published August 23, 2021

ISL’s board meeting is scheduled on 24th August, 2021 to consider FY21 financial results. We expect the company to post earnings of PKR 17.74/share, up 14.6x YoY in FY21 as against an EPS of PKR 1.14 in FY20…

PSO: FY21 earnings to clock in at PKR 49.6/share, 4QFY21 EPS PKR 10.76

Published August 23, 2021

PSO’s board meeting is scheduled on August 23, 2021 to consider FY21 financial results. We expect the company to post an EPS of PKR 49.6, as compared to an LPS of PKR 13.77 during FY20, driven by higher volumetric sales and inventory gains during the year…

MEBL: Higher non-interest income lifted 2QCY21 EPS to PKR 4.60, up 5% YoY

Published August 17, 2021

Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL) posted the highest ever quarterly profit of PKR 6.5bn (EPS PKR 4.60), taking cumulative EPS for 1HCY21 to PKR 8.91, up 8% YoY …

MLCF – FY21 consolidated EPS stood at PKR 3.49

Published August 13, 2021

MLCF announced its financial result today where the company posted net earnings of PKR 3.49/ share, versus the LPS of PKR 3.24/ share in FY20, mainly…

MEBL: 2QCY21 EPS expected to clock in at PKR 4.20, down 4% YoY

Published August 12, 2021

Meezan Bank Limited (MEBL) is scheduled to announce its 2QCY21 financial results today 12th August 2021. In this regard, we expect the bank to report net earnings of PKR 4.20/share…

ACPL – FY21 Consolidated EPS settles at PKR 13.61, down 6% YoY

Published August 11, 2021

ACPL announced its financial result today, where in the company posted consolidated EPS of PKR 13.61/share, down 6% YoY mainly on the back of higher SGA expenses…

POL: FY21 EPS clocks in at PKR 47.1, -18% YoY; 4Q EPS at PKR 13.4, up 57% YoY

Published August 11, 2021

POL announced its FY21 financial result today, wherein the company reported an EPS of PKR 47.14, down 18% YoY. The result is in line with our expectation. Along with the result, the company announced final cash dividend of PKR 30/share, taking cumulative dividend payout to PKR 50/share…

APL: FY21 earnings clocked in at PKR 49.4/share, up 3.9x YoY

Published August 11, 2021

APL announced its FY21 results today wherein the company reported an EPS of PKR 49.43, up 3.9x YoY. The company also announced a final cash dividend of PKR 24.5/share in addition to already declared interim dividend of PKR 2.5/share in 2QFY21, taking the cumulative dividend payout to PKR 27.0/share in FY21…

MLCF – FY21 EPS expected at PKR 3.45

Published August 11, 2021

  • MLCF is scheduled to announce its 4QFY21 results on 12th August 2021. The company is estimated to post profit after tax of PKR 945mn (EPS PKR 0.86), as compared to loss of PKR 832mn (LPS PKR 0.76) in the same period last year on back of robust growth in sales….

APL: FY21 earnings to clock in at PKR 53.9/share, up 4.3x YoY

Published August 10, 2021

APL’s board meeting is scheduled on August 11, 2021 to consider FY21 financial results. We expect the company to post an EPS of PKR 53.9, as compared to an EPS of PKR 10.1 FY20, depicting 4.3x growth in the bottomline…

UBL: Provisioning reversals lift 2QCY21 EPS to PKR 6.20, up 20% YOY

Published August 10, 2021

United bank Limited (UBL) announced its 2QCY21 results, where the bank posted surprise earnings growth of 20% YoY to PKR 6.20/share…

LUCK: FY21 unconsolidated earnings clock in at PKR 43.51/share

Published August 9, 2021

Lucky Cement held its board meeting on Saturday and disclosed its financial results today.  The company reported FY21 unconsolidated earnings of PKR 43.51/share, up 3.2x YoY…

ACPL: FY21 Consolidated EPS expected at PKR 15.16, up 5% YoY

Published August 9, 2021

ACPL is scheduled to announce its 4QFY21 results on 11th August 2021. The company is estimated to post consolidated profit after tax of PKR 501mn (EPS PKR 3.64)…

 

POL: FY21 EPS expected at PKR 46.9, -19% YoY; 4Q EPS at PKR 13.2, up 55% YoY

Published August 9, 2021

  • POL’s board meeting is scheduled on August 11, 2021, to announce 4QFY21 financial results, where we expect the company to post an EPS of PKR 13.2, up 55% YoY…

LUCK: FY21 unconsolidated earnings to clocks in at PKR 43.61/share

Published August 6, 2021

Lucky Cement is scheduled to hold its board meeting tomorrow to consider FY21 results.  We expect the company to post unconsolidated earnings of PKR 7.47/share …

UBL: 2QCY21 EPS to arrive at PKR 5.50, up 6% YoY

Published August 6, 2021

UBL is scheduled to announce its 2QCY21 financial results today. In this regard, we expect the bank to post profit after tax of PKR 6.7bn …

ICI: FY21 earnings grew 1.1x to clock in at PKR 60.30/ share

Published August 5, 2021

ICI Pakistan announced its FY21 results, where the company reported profit after tax of PKR 5.6bn (PKR 60.30/share). 4QFY21 PAT…

ICI: 4QFY21 Consolidated EPS expected at PKR 16.54

Published August 4, 2021

ICI Pakistan is scheduled to hold its board meeting tomorrow to consider FY21 results, wherein the consolidated profit after tax for 4QFY21 is expected to increase 9.6x YoY…

BAHL: 2QCY21 EPS to grow by 2% YoY to PKR 4.0

Published August 4, 2021

Bank AL Habib Limited (BAHL) is scheduled to announce its 2QCY21 financial results today 4th August 2021. In this regard, we expect the bank to record net earnings of …

FFC – 2QCY21 earnings clocked in at PKR 2.85/share, down 26% YoY

Published August 2, 2021

FFC announced its 2QCY21 financial results on 30th July, wherein the company’s net earnings declined 26% YoY to PKR 2.85/share…

EFERT:2QCY21 Results Update & analyst briefing takeaways

Published August 2, 2021

EFERT announced its 2QCY21 financial results on 29th July and reported consolidated net earnings of PKR 3.60/share…..

FFBL – 2QCY21 EPS clocked in at PKR 2.02, up 106% QoQ

Published July 29, 2021

FFBL announced its 2QCY21 results today wherein the company posted an EPS of PKR 2.02 in………

HBL: 2QCY21 EPS came in at PKR 6.35, down 16% YoY

Published July 29, 2021

HBL announced its 2QCY21 result wherein the bank reported consolidated net earnings of PKR 6.35/share, down 16% YoY. This takes cumulative earnings for 1HCY21 to PKR 12.04/share, up 17% YoY. Along with the result, the bank has also announced an interim cash dividend of PKR 1.75/share, taking cumulative payout to PKR 3.50/share for 1HCY21.

HBL 2QCY21 EPS expected to clock in at PKR 5.85, down 22% YoY

Published July 29, 2021

HBL is scheduled to announce its 2QCY21 financial results today 29th July 2021, where we expect the bank to report net earnings of PKR 5.85/share, down 22% YoY. This will take cumulative earnings for 1HCY21 to PKR 11.53/share, up 12% YoY. The bank is also expected to announce an interim cash dividend of PKR 1.75/share, taking cumulative payout to PKR 3.50/share for 1HCY21.

Fertilizer: June-21 offtake remained lukewarm

Published July 28, 2021

During Jun-21, industry urea offtake declined by 41% YoY to 690k tons, while DAP offtake decreased by 61% YoY to 68 k tons. The significant decrease in monthly urea offtake was primarily due to the high base effect, given pre-buying activity in June-20 in anticipation of prices hike post gas tariff increase…

Fertilizer Sector: 2QCY21 Earnings Preview

Published July 26, 2021

 

Universe earnings to rise by 65% YoY

  • With the onset of 2Q results season, we expect our fertilizer universe to post earnings jump of 65% YoY in 2Q, mainly led by high DAP margins.
  • Fertilizer companies in our universe are expected to post 1.2pps jump in Gross Margins, primarily due to increased DAP prices. DAP prices were up 50% YoY during 2QCY21, whereas Urea prices grew by 3.4% YoY in 2Q.

Economy: FY21 CPI up 8.9%, contained in the SBP’s targeted range

Published July 2, 2021

June-21 National CPI grew 9.7% YoY, taking full year FY21 CPI growth to 8.9% YoY vs 10.7% YoY increase in FY20…

Improved margins to support bottom line

Published June 11, 2021

We revisit our investment case on Cherat Cement Company Limited (CHCC) and revise up our price target (PT) by 12.5% after reviewing 1HFY21 accounts to PKR 225/share, providing a potential upside of 40%. We maintain our BUY recommendation on the scrip….

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